Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Why Felix Hernandez should win the Cy Young Award, even though he probably won't

I'm not the type for corny metaphors, but to make this interesting, let’s pretend that the Cy Young Award race is like climbing a mountain. Mount Everest, to be specific. Each year, pitchers begin to climb the mountain. Some fall off rather early, while others hang around for awhile. A select few, maybe four or five at most, climb more efficiently than all of the others. Now keeping in mind that only one of these pitchers can win the award despite all of their impressive resumes, or in this case all of their impressive climbing, these four or five pitchers must wait at the top of the peak for some kind of mountain dwelling committee to decide their fate. That's the Baseball Writers of America, for those of you who I have now confused.



This year, there are a number of pitchers who have the resumes to win the award. In fact, there are even two or three relievers who are in serious contention to finish in the top 10 in voting. However, one man will probably barely make the cut when in actuality he probably deserves to win the award outright. This man is Felix Hernandez.

They call him King Felix, the man who wears the brim of his hat down so low that you can barely tell if he has eyes. Hitters are scared of him. Pitchers admire him. His repertoire of pitches includes a fastball that can reach 100 mph, and devastating breaking pitches. And he’s only 24 years old. In just six years of Major League service, he has managed to become one of the most feared pitchers in the game. So why isn’t he going win the Cy Young Award, or even finish in the top 5?

Wins.

As a diehard baseball fan and a student of the game, nothing angers me more at the statistic ‘Wins.’ It is an incredibly simple stat to understand, and yet so troublesome, especially in a situation like the one I am writing about.

Hernandez, as of today, has an earned run average of 2.38 and a WHIP of 1.10, and his 200 strikeouts are tied for an American League best. He has pitched 211.1 innings and given up only 14 home runs, both which are league bests, as well as posting an impressive .222 batting average against. So why is CC Sabathia the favorite to win the Cy Young Award?

CC Sabathia has 19 wins. Felix Hernandez has 10.

The difference here is that Sabathia pitches for the New York Yankees, whereas Hernandez pitches for the Seattle Mariners. There is a fundamental difference. Let’s compare the numbers:



Hernandez has more strikeouts, less walks, a lower ERA, a lower WHIP, a lower batting average against, and has pitched more innings; but because Sabathia has 9 more wins, he is going to trump Hernandez when it comes time to vote. That is completely ridiculous. Sabathia’s team averages 5.8 runs of support in his starts, where Hernandez’s team scores an average of 3.1 runs per game. That is a staggering difference, and it certainly is not Felix Hernandez’s fault.

The Cy Young Award is an award that is given to the best pitcher in each given year. For some reason, an emphasis is placed on the pitchers who have high win totals or pitch for teams with better records. A win total does not mean a pitcher pitched well in all of those games. Sometimes a pitcher can have an awful game and still pick up a win. It is a statistic based solely on chance. When it comes to debating Cy Young Awards or any kind of award or merit for pitchers, wins are the last statistic I look at (if I even look at them at all).

What about Felix’s team? Just how awful are they? Well, here are the run totals for the Mariners in Hernandez’s 10 losses: 1, 3, 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1. 12 runs in 10 games? That is absolutely horrendous. There isn’t a pitcher in the game today, or anyone who has ever pitched in history, that can survive with run production like that. King Felix has had his share of bad luck as well. On May 13th, early in the season, Hernandez gave up one run on five hits in a seven inning performance, demonstrating incredible control and dominance. The Mariners’ bullpen allowed the Orioles to score five runs after Hernandez was pulled from the game, and went on to lose the game 6-5. That’s Felix Hernandez’s fault though. Right?

How about on July 21st, when the Mariners hosted the Chicago White Sox? Felix Hernandez pitches eight innings of masterpiece baseball, giving up no earned runs and only allowing two hits. He struck out eight White Sox batters and left the game with a 0-0 tie. The Mariners won the game in extra innings, 2-1. Felix gets the no decision. His fault again, I’m sure.

This is not me trying to say CC Sabathia does not deserve the award, because statistically he is having a fantastic year. However, Felix Hernandez is having an even better year in every important facet of the game which is why he truly deserves to have his name engraved on the plaque. The award has never and should never be linked to team success and/or personal win accumulation. It should be based solely on how effectively a pitcher has pitched, using other vital and much more important statistics.

Let’s just hope the Baseball Writers of America put Felix Hernandez on top of Mount Everest, because that is exactly where he belongs.

No comments: