It’s no secret that I’ve been one of Felix Hernandez’s biggest supporters in this year’s Cy Young race. I love the guy, and I love the way he pitches. He’s doing something extraordinary this season, and nobody even cares. I get that CC Sabathia has 20 plus wins and both he and David Price are pitching in a pennant race. The fact remains, the award goes to the best pitcher in a given year. Felix deserves it, and there are numerous amounts of evidence to prove it. First, let’s look at the stats as of today:
CC Sabathia: 21-7, 3.18 ERA, 197 K, 74 BB, 1.19 WHIP, .239 BAA, 237.2 IP, 5.5 WAR
Felix Hernandez: 13-12, 2.27 ERA, 232 K, 70 BB, 1.06 WHIP, .212 BAA, 249.2 IP, 6.0 WAR
Now, let’s debunk some myths, shall we?
1. CC Sabathia has 20 wins. Felix Hernandez only has 12.
Well yes, this is statistically true. However, it is also incredibly misleading. Let’s start with the win totals themselves. CC Sabathia has won 21 games and lost seven. Felix Hernandez has won 13 games and lost 12. Let’s look deeper into these numbers. CC Sabathia has just six wins against teams that have an overall record above .500. Felix Hernandez has nine wins against teams with similar records. That means 77% of Sabathia’s wins have come against teams with losing records, while 75% of Hernandez’s wins have come against teams with winning records. Basically, Sabathia has beaten a lot of bad teams and Hernandez has beaten a lot of good teams. Let’s total the statistics:
Teams with losing records
Sabathia: 14-4, 2.77 ERA, 105 K, 43 BB, 1.23 WHIP, .249 BAA
Hernandez: 3-5, 2.36 ERA, 99 K, 35 BB, 1.17 WHIP, .229 BAA
Teams with winning records
Sabathia: 6-3, 3.98 ERA, 84 K, 29 BB, 1.17 WHIP, .234 BAA
Hernandez: 9-7, 2.27 ERA, 128 K, 33 BB, 0.97 WHIP, .200 BAA
Against the bad teams, Sabathia pitched very well. Hernandez pitched well too. Against teams with winning records however, Sabathia is highly average. Hernandez dominated. A WHIP of .97 and an ERA of 2.27 is extremely impressive, especially when you see some of the teams included on the list. In an odd way, one could argue that Sabathia pitched better against worse competition while Hernandez pitched better against tougher opposition.
We also have to take into consideration the anatomy of a win in general. Yes, Sabathia does have 20 plus wins. Then again, he does play for a team that is currently number one in total runs scored with 839 (45 ahead of the second ranked team) while Hernandez plays for a team who has only scored 501 total runs all season. Batting average, slugging, OPS, et cetera. You name it and the Mariners are in last place.
The Yankees score roughly seven a game when CC Sabathia is on the hill (7.31 RS to be exact). Felix Hernandez? Try less than four (3.75 RS). Imagine going out on the mound every fifth day knowing your team is going to score seven runs for you, as opposed to going out on the mount and knowing that if you give up more than two runs, you will probably lose the game. Scary.
2. CC Sabathia pitches in a tougher division than Felix Hernandez does which makes Sabathia’s numbers more impressive
There is no arguing that the AL East is not better than the AL West, because we all know this to be true. The East features three powerful offenses in New York, Boston, and Toronto, while the West has statistically some of the worst offenses in the American League (for offensive power rankings check out Beyond the Boxscore’s analysis). However, the fact that the division Sabathia pitches in features tougher offenses does not mean that Hernandez’s numbers are not as impressive. Let’s take a look.
AL East opponents
Sabathia: 15 starts, 8-3, 3.46 ERA, 85 K, 33 BB, 1.20 WHIP
Hernandez: 7 starts, 5-1, 0.63 ERA, 58 K, 15 BB, 0.89 WHIP
It is also important to note that five of Sabathia’s wins came against the Orioles and three of Hernandez’s wins came against the Yankees.
I find it incredible that Hernandez dominated the Yankees with three wins, 31 strikeouts, and just one earned run in three starts. People are constantly saying that Sabathia has an advantage by pitching in a tougher division. It becomes a moot point once you realize that Hernandez has even more impressive numbers against the same tough teams and dominated a division Sabathia has been only average against. (I know, I know, but Sabathia has pitched more games against those opponents). It’s also interesting to note that Sabathia has a chunk of wins against a really bad Baltimore Orioles team. In fact, 10 of Sabathia’s 21 wins have come against the Orioles, Mariners, and Royals, arguably the three worst offenses in baseball. Also, he's only faced the Toronto Blue Jays one time all season. Yikes.
3. CC Sabathia pitches in a pennant race, putting him in a higher pressure situation
I never understood this argument, for several reasons. I mean, sure it must be a big responsibility being the ace on a pennant race staff. Isn’t it just as nerve racking being one of the best pitchers in baseball on a team that scores less runs than a pee wee team?
Sabathia goes on the mound every night knowing that even if he screws up a little bit, his offense has his back. Come on, the guy gets seven runs of support per game! Hernandez, not so much. He steps on the rubber knowing that if he gives up two runs, or even one single run, he might not be able to win the game. That’s not considered stressful? He has two complete game losses this year. I don’t know if anyone realizes how stressful it must be to give your best stuff for a complete game, and then to lose the game 1-0 or 3-2. It’s almost as if the stress argument works in favor of Hernandez.
Here are some clutch/pressure stats, for the saber minded people.
2 outs, RISP
Sabathia: 92 PA, 26 K, 9 BB, 26 runs allowed, .313 BAA, .380 OBP, .826 OPS, .436 BAbip,
Hernandez: 92 PA, 23 K, 6 BB, 26 runs allowed, .212 BAA, .272 OBP, .578 OPS, .279 BAbip
Late & Close(7th inning or later with batting team tied, ahead by one, or tying run at least on deck)
Sabathia: 62 PA, 11 K, 8 BB, 3 runs allowed, .196 BA, .317 OBP, .513 OPS, .250 BAbip
Hernandez: 118 PA, 25 K, 7 BB, 7 runs allowed, .194 BA, .263 OBP, .559 OPS, .225 BAbip
First of all, notice that Hernandez is statistically a much, much better pitcher with runners in scoring position and two outs as well as in late and close situations. Also notice the stark difference in plate appearances between the two pitchers in late and close situations. When you pitch for the 2010 Yankees, there won’t be many close games. When you are the ace of the Mariners, close situations are what you live for.
If we are arguing pressure pitchers here, Hernandez is the winner.
I’m not here to argue that CC Sabathia is having a poor season. Not at all. I think Sabathia has had a really good season. I just don’t think really good (read: average) seasons win the Cy Young Award. Really great seasons win Cy Young Awards, and that is why Felix Hernandez deserves it. He has, on the worst offensive team in the league, pitched the best all around baseball out of any starting pitcher in the American League. He is the leader in every statistical category (sans wins) and has dominated some of the toughest opposition.
The Baseball Writers of America would be doing the game a great dishonor to pass up this chance to give one of the best pitchers in the game today an award he has truly earned.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo! wrote a great article with similar points. You can view it here.
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